Are you investing in the right industry?
Does the term book-to-bill ratio sound familiar to you? Do you know the demand and supply numbers of private condominiums in Singapore for the next year ? If you do, you must have already performed some sort of industry analysis on the electronics and property industries (or sectors as commonly referred to in stockmarket terms).
Most investment processes include some sort of industry analysis. This is important because many studies have shown that over a period of time, some industries have per-formed better than others. For example, between 1987 and 1996, banking stocks in Singapore have generated better returns than other industries such as shiprepair. Industry analyses will uncover these performance differences and help identify both unprofitable and profitable opportunities
(situations).
It is also important to note that past performance alone will not help predict future performance. The factors or conditions that helped an industry to prosper in the past will change over time. Identifying and studying these factors will provide some clues to the entry and exit points of the investments. Going back to our earlier example, economic growth is an important criterion for banks' earnings. Between 1987 and 1996, Singapore enjoyed an uninterrrupted average GDP growth of 8.9%. This allowed the banks' earnings to grow at a compound rate of 11.3% when the broader market generated only 8.5% growth. With GDP growth decelerating because of the Asian crisis, can we maintain the same sanguine outlook for the banks?
Having determined that industry analyses are important for successful investing, the next step is to find out how we can go about doing one. There is no generic framework that is applicable to all industries, but there are commonalities which we can identify. In a free market economy, demand and supply are key determinants of price, and price is always an important contributor to any profit-driven organisation. Hence, a successful indstry ana-lysis will have to identify the underlying fac-tors driving demand and supply.
Factors that drive demand vary across industries, and are too numerous to list. However, it is important to note that demand can be categorised as "seasonal", "cyclical" or "secular". As the word suggests, seasonal fac-tors recur year after year. Cyclical factors, on the other hand, follow
very closely to the economic cycles of the market. Secular factors are more long term in nature. Seasonality or economic cycles will have minimal impact on secular trends.
Take an airline as an illustration. Most Singaporeans take their vacation in December. That is why airline seats are difficult to secure during that time. This is the seasonal factor because it occurs every year around the same time. Having said that, Singaporeans usually take vacations more frequently when the economy is doing well, and less so during reccessionary times. The rise and fall in demand in accordance to economic activities is the cyclical factor. Finally, the middle class population in Singapore has been rising over the last 20 years. This group is generally more affluent. Part of the lifestyle usually includes taking regular vacations to exotic destinations. Such lifestyle doesn't change annually, nor does it follow the ups and downs of economic growth. The demand for air travel will grow so long as the middle class population continues to
increase. This is an example of secular demand.
Classifying demand factors into these categories is very useful. As long-term inves-tors, we do not want to be constantly reacting to signs that are short term and volatile in nature such as seasonal, and to a lesser extent, cyclical trends. Buying and selling stocks based on these short-term trends are not only expensive (brokerage cost) but difficult to time as well. Instead, we should focus on long-term trends. They usually have a longer and more permanent impact on share prices.
A key factor in identifying an attractive industry is pricing power. The ability of an industry to price its product at a profitable level without compromising its business pros-pect is important, and this is affected by many factors. Inelastic demand allows the tobacco producers to maintain good profits despite the rapidly rising tariffs all these years. Barriers to entry is another factor. Mobile-phone charges used to be very expensive because there was only Singapore Telecom providing the ser-vice (monopoly). With increased competition from M1, rates have been declining gradually. All things being equal, the more competitive the industry is, the lower the pricing power, and hence profits. Competition may be good for the consumers, but it seldom benefits the shareholders. Another factor that will impact the com-petitive environment of an industry is the cost structure. In general, indsutries with high fixed costs are more competitive than those that have high variable costs. We often hear about coun-tries being accused of 'dumping steel' onto other countries. Well, this is the case in point. Steel mills are expensive to construct. But once built, the investment costs are 'sunked'. On the other hand, the running cost to produce steel is relatively low. Since there are so many steel mills around the world (almost every country has one for strategic reasons), supply is in abundance. As competition intensifies in the global market, recovering investment cost of the mills becomes a secondary objective for management. What is more important is to keep the production ongoing and sell the steel at a price that can at least cover the variable cost component. These mills will definitely be loss-making, but at least they can continue to operate and not generate serious unemploy-ment for the economy (steel industry is very labour-intensive). Having looked at the fundamental issues, do we always buy into an industry with positive trends developing? The answer is 'no'. Con-fused? Here is why. The key to any successful investments is to stay ahead of what the market is discounting. Suppose we are bullish on the outlook of the residential property sector because owning a home is every Singaporean's dream and the island has limited land supply. But this view is widely observable. Further-more, most of the residential property stocks have already outperformed the market by huge margins. These are signs that the market has probably discounted the positive conclusion of our analysis. As such, the investment upside is probably limited. Conversely, if our conclu-sion unearths new information from the gene-ral market, we may have discovered something interesting here. To confirm that we have a good find, check out the valuation to see if it is attractive. There are many valuation tools, but the commonly used ones are Price/Earnings (PE), Enterprise Value/EBITDA*, Price/Book(P/B), and Dis-counted Cash Flow (DCF). Make a cross-industry comparison as well as historical com-parison. Going back to our property example. If our conclusion is new to the market, the industry is trading at the lower end of its histo-rical PE band, and it is also very attractive on PE terms versus the other industries in Singapore...bingo! In conclusion, I would like to leave you with a brain teaser. Imagine this is 1996 and you are an investor looking at the Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM) industry: DRAM is a semiconductor chip used in most electronic products such as personal computers. The business is cyclical in nature because corporate and private consumption of PCs usually rises when the economy is doing well. There are, however, two secular trends that underpin the growth in the industry. First, more and more people are buying PCs for their home and oiffice. Second, the requirement of DRAM per PC is also on the rise as processing power of computer increases exponentially. On the competitive issue, the cost to build a wafer fab is extremely high (about US$1b), and the technology is usually state-of-the-art. Besides capital and technology, there are no other significant barriers to entry. Margin for the industry had been very good because of supply shortage. This probably explained why share prices outperformed the market in 1995. The historical five-year PE band for selected stocks in the industry between 1991 and 1995 was about 10 to 100. The average PE during the period was 30. The industry is currently trading at a PE in the low teens. Would you invest in this industry? (The writer is the Investment Manager of Jardine Fleming Investment Management. This column has the support of the Investment Management Association of Singapore and the Stock Exchange of Singapore.)
到这个网站上去看一下,有这篇文章的翻译,此外还有许多商务英语论文
http://www.lunwenwang.com/Article/eng/biz/200510/26337_2.html
买汽车刚开始必须在4S里买保险么？他们的保险好贵，可以只买里面的强制险其他的外面保险公司买，可以么？
亲，支付宝的交易及任何操作都会受到支付宝实时风险识别体系的保护。若非您本人操作或操作环境可能有风险，系统识别后会需要校验一些身份信息或短信验证码来保证账户安全哦。另外支付宝已有会员保障服务，您可点此链接参考：http://t.cn/R7XtfaC
亲，您有任何疑问，可随时咨询支付宝唯一客服热线：95188
我的银行卡没激活可以绑微信上吗
你好，对于车险而言，在保险公司投保或者是在4S店投保都是根据个人的需要进行选择。建议您商业车险和交强险在同一家保险公司进行选购比较方便，当遇到事故是，可以减少理赔手续，保证理赔的及时性和准确性。
对于投保车险来说，主要需要注意以下几点：
1、避免车重复投保；即使投保人重复投保多个险种，也不会得到超价值赔款。
2、避免保险不保全；有些车主为了节省保费，想少保几种险，或者只保车损险，不保第三者责任险，或者只保主险，不保附加险等。在发生事故时，往往发现保险不全或者不足额，自身利益受到了一定的损失。
3、避免保单错误；投保人收到保单后，可通过保险公司客户服务电话或登陆公司主页网站输入相关信息进行查询，核对记录的保费及险种是否与保单一致。如发现有不对的地方，勿必第一时间与保险公司取得联系，及时更改，以使自己的权益获得最大的保障。
您可以参考：http://hi.baidu.com/hzins99/item/052050a3fac1259629ce9d1e
希望对您有所帮助
手机丢了对方关机如何找回
有没有激活都是可以绑定微信的，绑定了微信，没有激活的银行卡是用不了的。
问题就是，要使用这张信用卡，就要先激活这张信用卡，要不绑定微信等于未绑定，没有作用了，所以，先去激活信用卡再做绑定，就好了。
微信上没绑定银行卡可以收钱，收到的钱会放在微信零钱里。另外，如果你的微信没有完成实名认证，那么你将无法使用零钱(转账、支付、发红包)。
银行卡不激活不能用，银行卡一般存入10元就当做激活了，一类账户只能办理一个账户，Ⅰ类户，指的是通过传统银行柜面开立的、满足实名制所有严格要求的账户。
扩展资料：
申请信用卡和借记卡的过程是不一样的。申请信用卡时，需携带本人有效证件（身份证或身份证复印件）、居住地证明单位收入证明或个人资产证明等材料。
到银行柜台办理有关手续，需要填写申请表，其中填写信息要求真实。填写好申请表之后，要到开户行总行备案，由开户行总行对申请资料进行审核后。
大约经过20个工作日才能将卡下发到客户手中。申请借记卡相对简单，只需要携带自己有效证件，主要是身份证，到开户行填写申请表，当时就可以将卡发给申请人。
各大银行的的挂失手续不完全相同，如果丢失了可以先使用电话或者网上银行进行临时挂失，随后带上本人身份证等证明材料去银行柜台挂失。
参考资料来源：百度百科-银行卡
首选要选择报案，公安机关介入可以查询手机是否有使用过，其次就是等待对方手机开机。
当手机被盗或丢失的时候，如知道IMEI码，可以通过手机供应商进行手机锁定，对方开机即：获知被盗或捡到之后的手机号码，中止手机的通话功能，获知手机的方位。
IMEI为TAC + FAC + SNR + SP。IMEI(International Mobile Equipment Identity)是国际移动设备身份码的缩写，国际移动装备辨识码，是由15位数字组成的"电子串号"，它与每台手机一一对应，而且该码是全世界唯一的。每一只手机在组装完成后都将被赋予一个全球唯一的一组号码，这个号码从生产到交付使用都将被制造生产的厂商所记录。
1、发现手机丢了第一时间要先关闭支付宝的无线支付，然后更改支付宝、QQ、微信、百度理财、网银钱包等密码。
2、要拨打客服电话，联通10010，移动10086，电信10000,请求SIM卡挂失，这要提供服务密码的，如果忘记了也没有关系，向客服人员提供身份证号码跟姓名，SIM卡会暂停服务24小时的。
3、记住，手机丢了，这6件事一定要第一时间做：①致电运营商挂失手机号；②致电银行冻结手机网银；③手机绑定支付宝的拨95188挂失；④微信用户登录110.qq.com冻结账号；⑤修改微博、微信、QQ等密码；⑥找手机运营商补手机卡。
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